orin40
0xd4932b0fa75ed34bbd4cf90183eb971d91d27f04
Trader Insight
Extremely active with 869+ trades.
Standard trading pattern without clear edge signals.
Advanced Trading Metrics
Position Price Distribution
Deep Analysis: Why This Trader Makes Money
Double Advantage: This trader has BOTH above-average win rate (59.7%) AND larger winners (P/L ratio: 2.1x). This dual edge compounds into exceptional profitability. Most traders only have one edge or the other.
Long-Tail Lottery Ticket Strategy: 100% of positions are ultra-low probability bets (<10¢). The profitability here comes from: (1) Buying severely mispriced tail events that the market underestimates, (2) Limited downside (max loss is entry price × size), (3) Asymmetric upside (can gain 10x-100x on correct predictions). The trader exploits market inefficiency in pricing low-probability events, similar to insurance companies but in reverse.
Name Change History
This trader has changed their name 1 time. Frequent name changes may indicate insider activity.
Active Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Price | Current Value | P&L | % P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican ... | Yes | 169.53 | $0.09 | $62.73 | +$47.47 | +311.1% |
| Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? | Yes | 144.22 | $0.04 | $50.69 | +$45.37 | +851.7% |
| Will a No. 5 seed win Super Bowl LX | Yes | 100.00 | $0.01 | $31.45 | +$30.35 | +2759.1% |
| Will New England face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX? | Yes | 101.16 | $0.04 | $30.35 | +$26.30 | +650.0% |
| Will the Doomsday Clock move by ten seconds or more? | Yes | 100.00 | $0.09 | $29.00 | +$20.00 | +222.2% |
| Will Lens finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standin... | No | 100.00 | $0.06 | $27.00 | +$21.00 | +350.0% |
| Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion ... | Yes | 111.00 | $0.05 | $26.64 | +$21.09 | +380.0% |
| OpenAI acquired before 2027? | Yes | 100.00 | $0.06 | $25.65 | +$19.65 | +327.5% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? | No | 100.00 | $0.04 | $23.90 | +$19.90 | +497.5% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | No | 100.00 | $0.09 | $22.00 | +$13.00 | +144.4% |