brokemane
0x47dc47ddec224fef13c504edb2e7e1a86a8ec27e
Trader Insight
Directional bias - riding market trends. Extremely active with 570+ trades.
Directional trader with 71% bullish bias. Trading with conviction. [AUTOMATED BOT - trades execute within seconds]
Advanced Trading Metrics
Position Price Distribution
Deep Analysis: Why This Trader Makes Money
Asymmetric Profit Strategy: Despite only winning 41.2% of positions, this trader is profitable because their winners are 4.6x larger than their losers. This means each winning position earns $4.6 for every $1 lost on losing positions. This is the mathematical essence of profitable trading: win rate × average win > loss rate × average loss. The trader achieves profitability through (41.2% × 4.6) > (58.8% × 1.0) = 1.88 > 0.59.
Market-Making With Directional Bias: 71% BUY activity suggests the trader is primarily providing liquidity (taking the other side of sellers). However, unlike neutral market makers, this trader has directional edge - they're selectively buying undervalued positions and letting winners run while cutting losers. The 4.6x P/L ratio shows they're not just earning spread - they're accumulating positions with positive expected value.
Active Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Price | Current Value | P&L | % P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? | No | 3250.01 | $0.41 | $3038.76 | +$1706.42 | +128.1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? | No | 2210.79 | $0.45 | $1547.55 | +$559.17 | +56.6% |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? | No | 1075.99 | $0.60 | $968.39 | +$322.02 | +49.8% |
| Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31? | No | 700.00 | $0.63 | $680.40 | +$237.36 | +53.6% |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28? | No | 741.53 | $0.63 | $426.38 | $-41.20 | -8.8% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 545.06 | $0.74 | $416.97 | +$11.11 | +2.7% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | No | 474.36 | $0.59 | $199.23 | $-82.14 | -29.2% |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? | No | 417.00 | $0.51 | $173.06 | $-40.94 | -19.1% |
| Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo? | Yes | 308.71 | $0.66 | $158.68 | $-46.32 | -22.6% |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? | No | 286.08 | $0.42 | $148.76 | +$28.76 | +24.0% |