berboche
0x58aa47a2e3e0396f8c09259d87990db12e56a481
Trader Insight
Directional bias - riding market trends. Active trader with 471+ recorded trades.
Directional trader with 75% bullish bias. Trading with conviction.
Advanced Trading Metrics
Position Price Distribution
Deep Analysis: Why This Trader Makes Money
Asymmetric Profit Strategy: Despite only winning 41.7% of positions, this trader is profitable because their winners are 8.4x larger than their losers. This means each winning position earns $8.4 for every $1 lost on losing positions. This is the mathematical essence of profitable trading: win rate × average win > loss rate × average loss. The trader achieves profitability through (41.7% × 8.4) > (58.3% × 1.0) = 3.51 > 0.58.
Market-Making With Directional Bias: 75% BUY activity suggests the trader is primarily providing liquidity (taking the other side of sellers). However, unlike neutral market makers, this trader has directional edge - they're selectively buying undervalued positions and letting winners run while cutting losers. The 8.4x P/L ratio shows they're not just earning spread - they're accumulating positions with positive expected value.
Active Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Price | Current Value | P&L | % P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 9990.00 | $0.47 | $9040.95 | +$4345.65 | +92.6% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 3296.32 | $0.46 | $3147.99 | +$1647.99 | +109.9% |
| Space FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 1287.33 | $0.92 | $1189.49 | +$2.50 | +0.2% |
| Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by ... | No | 939.65 | $0.93 | $829.71 | $-43.29 | -5.0% |
| Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by January ... | Yes | 4601.20 | $0.28 | $805.21 | $-494.78 | -38.1% |
| Space FDV above $80M one day after launch? | No | 536.87 | $0.93 | $498.21 | $-1.79 | -0.4% |
| Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? | Yes | 1316.68 | $0.63 | $434.50 | $-398.50 | -47.8% |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 952.68 | $0.42 | $362.02 | $-37.98 | -9.5% |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | No | 387.62 | $0.69 | $246.14 | $-19.86 | -7.5% |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in ... | Yes | 205.11 | $0.64 | $132.30 | +$0.30 | +0.2% |
Recent Trades
| Time | Market | Side | Size | Price | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 04:00 | Boxing: Adam22 vs. Jason Luv | BUY | 72.34 | $0.83 | $60.00 |
| 2026-01-24 02:05 | Boxing: Adam22 vs. Jason Luv | BUY | 120.24 | $0.83 | $100.00 |
| 2026-01-23 23:31 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 4147.28 | $0.64 | $2664.30 |
| 2026-01-23 21:53 | Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by ... | BUY | 939.65 | $0.93 | $873.00 |
| 2026-01-22 19:49 | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BUY | 996.22 | $0.96 | $959.53 |
| 2026-01-22 06:21 | Space FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 101.11 | $0.99 | $100.00 |
| 2026-01-22 02:31 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | SELL | 4938.27 | $0.95 | $4691.36 |
| 2026-01-22 02:08 | Space FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 275.64 | $0.97 | $267.00 |
| 2026-01-22 00:56 | Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 952.68 | $0.42 | $400.00 |
| 2026-01-22 00:53 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 1128.12 | $0.29 | $327.96 |
| 2026-01-22 00:28 | Space FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 1011.69 | $0.91 | $920.00 |
| 2026-01-21 21:53 | Space FDV above $80M one day after launch? | BUY | 536.87 | $0.93 | $500.00 |
| 2026-01-21 05:43 | Seeker FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 56.07 | $0.98 | $55.00 |
| 2026-01-21 01:19 | Seeker FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 1021.87 | $0.98 | $1001.00 |
| 2026-01-21 01:14 | Seeker FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 1021.39 | $0.98 | $1000.00 |
| 2026-01-19 20:03 | Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? | SELL | 8272.13 | $0.30 | $2499.65 |
| 2026-01-18 17:22 | Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? | BUY | 814.62 | $0.67 | $542.00 |
| 2026-01-18 08:54 | Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? | BUY | 1823.21 | $0.90 | $1640.00 |
| 2026-01-18 06:20 | Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? | BUY | 58.14 | $0.86 | $50.00 |
| 2026-01-18 05:49 | Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? | BUY | 59.30 | $0.86 | $51.00 |