ScottVan
0xca8f0374e3fc79b485499cc0b038d4f7e783d963
Trader Insight
Spread arbitrage - neutral position capturing bid-ask spread. Extremely active with 1000+ trades.
Neutral spread trader capturing bid-ask difference. Low directional risk.
Advanced Trading Metrics
Position Price Distribution
Deep Analysis: Why This Trader Makes Money
Double Advantage: This trader has BOTH above-average win rate (50.1%) AND larger winners (P/L ratio: 1.1x). This dual edge compounds into exceptional profitability. Most traders only have one edge or the other.
Long-Tail Lottery Ticket Strategy: 100% of positions are ultra-low probability bets (<10¢). The profitability here comes from: (1) Buying severely mispriced tail events that the market underestimates, (2) Limited downside (max loss is entry price × size), (3) Asymmetric upside (can gain 10x-100x on correct predictions). The trader exploits market inefficiency in pricing low-probability events, similar to insurance companies but in reverse.
Proven Edge Through Survivorship: With 1,000 trades, this is NOT luck. The law of large numbers means that random trading would converge to zero profit (minus fees). Sustained profitability over 1,000 trades is statistical proof of a genuine edge. Most traders blow up or quit - the fact this trader is still active and profitable demonstrates repeatable skill or information advantage.
Active Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Price | Current Value | P&L | % P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be seven or eight announced new U.S. armed forces... | Yes | 99.99 | $0.09 | $68.40 | +$59.40 | +660.0% |
| Will Perena launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 275.73 | $0.10 | $59.28 | +$31.71 | +115.0% |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be betwee... | No | 81.11 | $0.09 | $50.94 | +$43.72 | +605.6% |
| Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? | No | 95.99 | $0.10 | $38.88 | +$29.28 | +305.0% |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be betwee... | Yes | 100.00 | $0.09 | $37.20 | +$28.00 | +304.3% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? | No | 56.04 | $0.02 | $30.26 | +$29.14 | +2600.0% |
| Will Exponent launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 100.00 | $0.06 | $29.50 | +$23.50 | +391.7% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 300.01 | $0.09 | $25.50 | $-1.50 | -5.6% |
| ErdoÄŸan out by end of 2026? | Yes | 300.01 | $0.09 | $25.50 | $-3.00 | -10.5% |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese pres... | Yes | 300.00 | $0.10 | $25.50 | $-3.00 | -10.5% |