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ScottVan

0xca8f0374e3fc79b485499cc0b038d4f7e783d963

Edge: 34/100 Spread Arbitrage
Total Profit +$65.36 +2.7% ROI
Win Rate 50.1%
Trades 1000
Portfolio $2.7K
Positions 500
Verified on-chain

Trader Insight

Spread arbitrage - neutral position capturing bid-ask spread. Extremely active with 1000+ trades.

Neutral spread trader capturing bid-ask difference. Low directional risk.

Advanced Trading Metrics

BUY Trades 594 (59.4%)
SELL Trades 406 (40.6%)
Interval 4.4m
Open 500
Profitable 241
Losing 240
P/L Ratio 1.14x

Position Price Distribution

Ultra Low (<10¢)
500

Deep Analysis: Why This Trader Makes Money

Double Advantage: This trader has BOTH above-average win rate (50.1%) AND larger winners (P/L ratio: 1.1x). This dual edge compounds into exceptional profitability. Most traders only have one edge or the other.

Long-Tail Lottery Ticket Strategy: 100% of positions are ultra-low probability bets (<10¢). The profitability here comes from: (1) Buying severely mispriced tail events that the market underestimates, (2) Limited downside (max loss is entry price × size), (3) Asymmetric upside (can gain 10x-100x on correct predictions). The trader exploits market inefficiency in pricing low-probability events, similar to insurance companies but in reverse.

Proven Edge Through Survivorship: With 1,000 trades, this is NOT luck. The law of large numbers means that random trading would converge to zero profit (minus fees). Sustained profitability over 1,000 trades is statistical proof of a genuine edge. Most traders blow up or quit - the fact this trader is still active and profitable demonstrates repeatable skill or information advantage.

Active Positions

Market Outcome Size Avg Price Current Value P&L % P&L
Will there be seven or eight announced new U.S. armed forces... Yes 99.99 $0.09 $68.40 +$59.40 +660.0%
Will Perena launch a token by March 31, 2026? Yes 275.73 $0.10 $59.28 +$31.71 +115.0%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be betwee... No 81.11 $0.09 $50.94 +$43.72 +605.6%
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 95.99 $0.10 $38.88 +$29.28 +305.0%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be betwee... Yes 100.00 $0.09 $37.20 +$28.00 +304.3%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? No 56.04 $0.02 $30.26 +$29.14 +2600.0%
Will Exponent launch a token by March 31, 2026? Yes 100.00 $0.06 $29.50 +$23.50 +391.7%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 300.01 $0.09 $25.50 $-1.50 -5.6%
ErdoÄŸan out by end of 2026? Yes 300.01 $0.09 $25.50 $-3.00 -10.5%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese pres... Yes 300.00 $0.10 $25.50 $-3.00 -10.5%

Recent Trades

Time Market Side Size Price Total
2026-01-24 19:17 Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair... BUY 100.00 $0.07 $7.50
2026-01-24 19:10 Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? SELL 100.00 $0.03 $3.10
2026-01-24 18:50 Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 23 to Januar... BUY 5.00 $0.04 $0.18
2026-01-24 18:49 US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? BUY 100.00 $0.02 $1.80
2026-01-24 18:31 Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY 100.00 $0.03 $3.10
2026-01-24 18:13 Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 23 to Januar... SELL 100.00 $0.00 $0.10
2026-01-24 18:10 Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair... SELL 99.62 $0.06 $5.48
2026-01-24 18:06 Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 20 to Januar... BUY 79.00 $0.02 $1.22
2026-01-24 18:06 Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY 100.00 $0.05 $5.00
2026-01-24 18:02 Will André Ventura win the second round? SELL 13.25 $0.02 $0.24
2026-01-24 18:02 Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL 100.00 $0.08 $7.90
2026-01-24 17:39 Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)? SELL 100.00 $0.02 $2.40
2026-01-24 17:38 Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 20 to Januar... BUY 74.76 $0.04 $3.19
2026-01-24 17:37 Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to Januar... SELL 100.00 $0.01 $0.80
2026-01-24 17:18 Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL 76.06 $0.08 $6.08
2026-01-24 17:13 Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY 12.21 $0.05 $0.65
2026-01-24 16:52 Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL 7.96 $0.04 $0.28
2026-01-24 16:51 Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? BUY 100.00 $0.06 $6.49
2026-01-24 16:29 Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair... BUY 58.00 $0.06 $3.75
2026-01-24 16:29 US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? BUY 67.00 $0.03 $1.88