ImJustKen
0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344
Trader Insight
Whale activity - large positions may move markets. $17K profit demonstrates proven edge. Extremely active with 1000+ trades.
Large position holder with $918K deployed. May be market making or have information edge.
Advanced Trading Metrics
Position Price Distribution
Deep Analysis: Why This Trader Makes Money
Long-Tail Lottery Ticket Strategy: 44% of positions are ultra-low probability bets (<10¢). The profitability here comes from: (1) Buying severely mispriced tail events that the market underestimates, (2) Limited downside (max loss is entry price × size), (3) Asymmetric upside (can gain 10x-100x on correct predictions). The trader exploits market inefficiency in pricing low-probability events, similar to insurance companies but in reverse.
Proven Edge Through Survivorship: With 1,000 trades, this is NOT luck. The law of large numbers means that random trading would converge to zero profit (minus fees). Sustained profitability over 1,000 trades is statistical proof of a genuine edge. Most traders blow up or quit - the fact this trader is still active and profitable demonstrates repeatable skill or information advantage.
Active Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Price | Current Value | P&L | % P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 101218.09 | $0.68 | $77431.84 | +$8661.03 | +12.6% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 269251.95 | $0.36 | $75390.55 | $-20841.45 | -21.7% |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? | No | 74988.20 | $0.93 | $73413.45 | +$3778.73 | +5.4% |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | No | 50859.95 | $0.84 | $43485.26 | +$566.99 | +1.3% |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? | Yes | 60268.49 | $0.25 | $34654.38 | +$19687.06 | +131.5% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 37645.26 | $0.74 | $30304.43 | +$2343.72 | +8.4% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 55024.93 | $0.59 | $23660.72 | $-8889.83 | -27.3% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be le... | Yes | 22667.50 | $0.88 | $22508.82 | +$2666.17 | +13.4% |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | No | 24664.90 | $0.86 | $22321.73 | +$1061.97 | +5.0% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 22220.00 | $0.93 | $20997.90 | +$244.53 | +1.2% |