Erasmus.
0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784
Trader Insight
Whale activity - large positions may move markets. $88K profit demonstrates proven edge. Extremely active with 1000+ trades.
Large position holder with $1909K deployed. May be market making or have information edge.
Advanced Trading Metrics
Position Price Distribution
Deep Analysis: Why This Trader Makes Money
Double Advantage: This trader has BOTH above-average win rate (58.1%) AND larger winners (P/L ratio: 1.6x). This dual edge compounds into exceptional profitability. Most traders only have one edge or the other.
Market-Making With Directional Bias: 93% BUY activity suggests the trader is primarily providing liquidity (taking the other side of sellers). However, unlike neutral market makers, this trader has directional edge - they're selectively buying undervalued positions and letting winners run while cutting losers. The 1.6x P/L ratio shows they're not just earning spread - they're accumulating positions with positive expected value.
Proven Edge Through Survivorship: With 1,000 trades, this is NOT luck. The law of large numbers means that random trading would converge to zero profit (minus fees). Sustained profitability over 1,000 trades is statistical proof of a genuine edge. Most traders blow up or quit - the fact this trader is still active and profitable demonstrates repeatable skill or information advantage.
Name Change History
This trader has changed their name 1 time. Frequent name changes may indicate insider activity.
Active Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Price | Current Value | P&L | % P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 665992.46 | $0.80 | $629362.87 | +$94823.34 | +17.7% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 481010.02 | $0.95 | $476921.43 | +$21121.63 | +4.6% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 me... | No | 355551.88 | $0.94 | $353240.79 | +$18303.10 | +5.5% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | No | 149906.70 | $0.87 | $146533.80 | +$16035.67 | +12.3% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 128773.58 | $0.86 | $112676.88 | +$2336.34 | +2.1% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 81650.21 | $0.60 | $52664.39 | +$3674.42 | +7.5% |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair... | No | 27168.30 | $0.88 | $25320.86 | +$1313.26 | +5.5% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 23772.26 | $0.72 | $19790.40 | +$2701.60 | +15.8% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 M... | No | 20386.28 | $0.70 | $16003.23 | +$1628.99 | +11.3% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 23879.89 | $0.46 | $14924.93 | +$3940.18 | +35.9% |