Dropper
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
Trader Insight
Remarkable 94% win rate suggests deep market knowledge. Whale activity - large positions may move markets. $64K profit demonstrates proven edge.
Large position holder with $319K deployed. May be market making or have information edge.
Advanced Trading Metrics
Position Price Distribution
Deep Analysis: Why This Trader Makes Money
Double Advantage: This trader has BOTH above-average win rate (94.4%) AND larger winners (P/L ratio: 17.6x). This dual edge compounds into exceptional profitability. Most traders only have one edge or the other.
Market-Making With Directional Bias: 90% BUY activity suggests the trader is primarily providing liquidity (taking the other side of sellers). However, unlike neutral market makers, this trader has directional edge - they're selectively buying undervalued positions and letting winners run while cutting losers. The 17.6x P/L ratio shows they're not just earning spread - they're accumulating positions with positive expected value.
Proven Edge Through Survivorship: With 1,000 trades, this is NOT luck. The law of large numbers means that random trading would converge to zero profit (minus fees). Sustained profitability over 1,000 trades is statistical proof of a genuine edge. Most traders blow up or quit - the fact this trader is still active and profitable demonstrates repeatable skill or information advantage.
Active Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Price | Current Value | P&L | % P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 94379.15 | $0.83 | $89188.30 | +$10578.68 | +13.5% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? | No | 64520.92 | $0.98 | $64230.57 | +$992.14 | +1.6% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 62221.98 | $0.31 | $61693.09 | +$42342.87 | +218.8% |
| Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? | Yes | 30084.95 | $0.90 | $27828.58 | +$752.12 | +2.8% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 25191.83 | $0.73 | $19145.79 | +$649.47 | +3.5% |
| Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ time... | No | 14498.02 | $0.98 | $14490.77 | +$248.89 | +1.7% |
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? | Yes | 12164.14 | $0.56 | $12158.05 | +$5346.14 | +78.5% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 13990.11 | $0.69 | $10142.83 | +$527.22 | +5.5% |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? | Yes | 9963.22 | $0.86 | $8717.82 | +$136.86 | +1.6% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 4596.49 | $0.61 | $3700.17 | +$917.77 | +33.0% |